Middle Provo River Spring Runoff
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It should not come as a surprise to anyone that experts are predicting high runoff on the Provo River (and most other rivers in Utah) in 2005. Due to above-normal winter precipitation, cool Spring temperatures and high soil moisture content, streamflows are expected to be higher than any time in the past several years - especially since work began on the Provo River Restoration Project.

Despite all the data available to water managers, it is still impossible to predict with a high degree of accuracy when runoff will begin, peak and end, and what the flow magnitudes will be. However, in planning for this year's runoff, the Central Utah Water Conservancy District and U.S. Bureau of Reclamation have examined runoff predictions of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center and tentatively identified a range of water volumes to occur on the Provo River at Jordanelle Dam. In turn, the Utah Reclamation Mitigation and Conservation Commission, the agency responsible for implementing the Provo River Restoration Project, prepared a couple of proposed flow regimes for water managers to use as guides for managing releases from Jordanelle Reservoir into the middle Provo River.

The two scenarios developed were: one targeting approximately 100,000 acre-feet of releases between April 1 and July 1; the other targeting about 120,000 acre-feet of releases between April 1 and July 1 ("Average" releases below Jordanelle Dam during this time period are between 50,000 and 60,000 acre-feet.) Both scenarios are charted on the graphs below. We wish to emphasize that these were recommended as guidelines only. Neither scenario may actually occur due to the many uncertainties involved in planning for runoff events. Actual operations will be determined based on daily conditions.

According to Mark Holden, Projects Manager for the Mitigation Commission, "The proposed flows are not definite and may vary according to actual runoff patterns and other factors. The Central Utah Water Conservancy District operates Jordanelle Dam and will make final decisions about flows based on the numerous factors they have to consider." Such factors include whether or not flood control criteria imposed on the dam by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers kick-in. Other considerations are water quality, water supply, coordination with the operations of Deer Creek Reservoir, Utah Lake levels, anticipated end-of-runoff reservoir contents, and June sucker operations below Deer Creek Dam; continuing operations for the endangered species is a very important facet of flows in the Provo River.

"If the runoff occurs in a manner similar to what is expected, I have no doubt that water managers will try their best to follow one of the patterns we have developed in concert with them, but I also think this year's runoff is going to be filled with surprises," Holden said. "This is a situation where we have recommended these particular flow regimes in order to follow a naturally-shaped hydrograph. These flow volumes will be sufficient to mobilize sediment, scour gravels, and inundate the flood plain, as we have done in some past years. A lot of water is predicted to be headed down the river, whether we like it or not. What we have tried to do is provide water managers with a couple of different flow patterns, based on historic natural flow magnitudes and patterns, and our studies."[Click here to download the PROVO RIVER FLOW STUDY Flow-habitat and Flow-ecological Relationships within the Riverine Ecosystem: Aquatic Habitat, Riparian Vegetation, Recreational Uses, Fluvial Processes, February 2004]

Anglers will still be able to fish the Provo River below Jordanelle Dam; however, they should be prepared for high water conditions and exercise even greater than normal caution when wading in the river. Holden suggests that anglers and others planning to enjoy the middle Provo River corridor should consult the various websites to check daily flow rates and for news updates before venturing out to fish. Anglers may consult the Central Utah Water Conservancy District's website for current flow release information before planning a trip to the middle Provo River.